What the Horn of Africa Tells Us About the Age of Converging Global Crises
The war in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have shown how quickly a regional conflict can become a global crisis. The Greater Horn of Africa may be next. The Red Sea carries nearly 15% of global trade, and the states along its shores are deeply unstable. Sudan’s civil war has displaced over 10 million people. Somalia remains fractured by insurgency. Ethiopia is still recovering from civil war. Competition over Nile waters is may lead to interstate conflict. These crises have produced massive refugee flows stretching across continents. Meanwhile, the U.S., China, Russia, Turkey, Israel, and Gulf states are competing for footholds across the region.
Drawing on field experience in East Africa and Central Asia, Ahmed Kodouda will argue that the Horn deserves attention, examining how domestic conflicts, climate shocks, and displacement are intersecting with great power competition in ways that carry real consequences for global trade and security.